Launching a test without a hypothesis is like starting a journey without knowing where you’re heading. It’s likely you won’t get what you want out of all your hard effort, time, and money. If you have zero ideas about what your hypothesis should be, our suggestion is to ponder the CRO research topics in Part 1 again and take a closer look at collected data.
Just like your journey, the success of the test depends strongly on how viable your hypothesis is. Then, how can you develop a strong hypothesis? That’s exactly the question we’ll answer in this article.
I. What is a hypothesis?
A hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction, a tentative assumption you make before running a test.
It is important that your hypothesis states clearly what could be changed, the result you’re expecting, and your reasoning. A hypothesis follows this simple formula:
If X, then Y, because of/due to Z.
In CRO, you would follow this syntax:
If A is changed to ….. , (conversion metric) will be improved/harmed because….
Characteristics of a winning hypothesis:
- It aims to trigger people’s reactions to the on-site changes, either negatively or positively, to see how people perceive your brand. For example, a title informing the event of a sale will create urgency and hypothetically increase conversion.
- It should be easily tested.
- It is insightful and provides learning.
Please watch the video below to understand the four different types of buyers and how to sell to them.